A New Turning Point in Global Climate Governance The United States has formally withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement for asecond time. This decision marks a significant shift in global climate governance andintroduces renewed uncertainty into international coordination on emissions reductionand climate policy.The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, established a global framework to limittemperature increases and coordinate national climate commitments. The U.S.withdrawal alters the balance of participation within this framework at a moment whenclimate policy,

A Fragmented Forecasting Landscape Economic forecasting is undergoing a structural shift. Models that once convergedaround similar projections now yield markedly different outcomes for growth, inflationand labour dynamics. Divergence is a defining feature of the current macroeconomicenvironment.International institutions acknowledge this challenge. The IMF notes that forecastingaccuracy has weakened due to non-linear shocks and structural breaks that historicaldata cannot fully explain. The OECD highlights increasing dispersion acrosseconometric and machine learning models as uncertainty rises.The result is a

The Limits of Economic Data Economic analysis depends on signals extracted from complex, imperfect datasets.As volatility increases and structural patterns weaken, the line between meaningfulinformation and statistical noise becomes harder to distinguish.Institutions such as the IMF and OECD have highlighted a growing gap betweenobserved data and model reliability, noting that non linear shocks distort traditionalindicators and reduce forecast accuracy. The challenge is not the absence of data, but identifying where the data stopsexplaining behaviour and

The Return of Scenario Thinking Global markets in 2025 continue to operate under conditions of persistent volatility.Uncertainty in trade, energy, geopolitics and technological adoption has challenged thereliability of traditional forecasting tools. In this context, scenario forecasting is remerging as a strategic discipline for governments, financial institutions andcorporations.Recent analyses highlight the limits of point forecasts in this environment. The FinancialTimes notes that economic projections have repeatedly missed turning points due tostructural breaks and non-linear shocks. (Financial

A Turning Point for Global Trade and Growth In 2025, the resurgence of trade tensions and tariff escalations has begun to reshapeglobal economic dynamics. What once appeared as episodic frictions now shows signsof a structural shift. The combined effect of increased protectionism, policy uncertaintyand supply chain realignment threatens to stall growth across regions.Forecasts by leading international organisations now factor in the cost of tradedisruptions. The shock affects not only exports and imports but also confidence,investment