The largest oil supply shock in modern history is correcting itself. Not because supply has returned to normal, but because markets have recalibrated their political expectations. That changes everything.   THE NUMBERS $138 /barrel Peak Brent price on 7 April 2026 — a modern historical record 10.5 mb/d Production collectively shut in by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain in April ~$97 /barrel Brent price on 3 June 2026, having fallen more than

Regulation with Global Reach The European Union methane regulation introduces strict monitoring and reporting obligations on energy imports, extending beyond EU borders. Its extraterritorial design affects global suppliers, particularly in gas markets. Emerging Trade-Off ● Environmental ambition vs. supply flexibility ● Regulatory compliance vs. market access ● Administrative burden vs. operational efficiency Risk Outlook Tighter requirements may reduce the pool of compliant suppliers, potentially constraining energy imports at a time of already fragile supply chains.

A Divergent Position in a Unified Front Since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine War, the European Union has largely maintained a unified stance in support of Ukraine and in the implementation of sanctions against Russia. However, under Viktor Orbán, Hungary has adopted a more cautious and differentiated position. While remaining formaly aligned with EU decisions, Hungary has repeatedly signaled resistance to deeper sanctions, military escalation and policies that could increase domestic economic pressure. This positioning

A Fracture in Aliance Expectations The escalation of the Iran war is exposing growing tensions within NATO, as European alies show increasing reluctance to align with U.S. military objectives. Reports indicate that several European countries have refused to support or participate in U.S. led operations against Iran, triggering frustration in Washington. Under Donald Trump, the United States has openly criticized alies for what it perceives as a lack of burden sharing in a conflict framed