A Turning Point for Global Trade and Growth
In 2025, the resurgence of trade tensions and tariff escalations has begun to reshape
global economic dynamics. What once appeared as episodic frictions now shows signs
of a structural shift. The combined effect of increased protectionism, policy uncertainty
and supply chain realignment threatens to stall growth across regions.
Forecasts by leading international organisations now factor in the cost of trade
disruptions. The shock affects not only exports and imports but also confidence,
investment decisions and cross border value chains.
Drivers Behind the Slowdown
Escalating Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty
The progressive imposition of tariffs, particularly by major economies, has raised costs
for intermediate goods, disrupted supply chain linkages and diminished margins for
firms. (PIIE+1)
Higher import costs translate into inflationary pressures for consumers and elevated
input costs for businesses, meaning a dual burden that suppresses demand and
reduces investment.
Supply Chain Realignment and Fragmentation
Trade war dynamics, combined with geopolitical tensions and pandemic era fragilities,
accelerate the restructuring of global supply chains. Firms are shifting away from
traditional patterns of specialization and off shoring, but the transition incurs costs and
inefficiencies.
Confidence and Investment Impact
Uncertainty about trade policies and potential retaliations discourages firms from
making long-term investments or expanding cross border operations. Investment lags,
hiring is deferred, and global demand weakens.
Consequences for Economies, Firms and Governments
● Global growth slowdown: With exports and imports under pressure, global GDP
growth may fall below pre pandemic trend levels. Analysts warn of prolonged
periods of sub par growth. (Bloomberg+1)
● Rising inflation and cost pressures: Tariff-induced cost increases feed into
consumer prices and business overheads, compressing margins and eroding
purchasing power. (El País+1)
● Supply chain disruption: Industries dependent on intermediate imports suffer
delayed deliveries, higher costs and reduced competitiveness.
● Uncertainty and risk aversion: Firms and investors may delay or cancel
expansion plans.
What This Means for the Next Decade
If current trends persist, global trade may undergo a structural reconfiguration. The
“open globalisation” era could give way to a more fragmented, regionalised trade
architecture. Cross border value chain integration may recede.
How TAMVER CONSULTING Helps
TAMVER CONSULTING supports organisations and public sector clients in navigating
this new trade policy landscape with structured, evidence based frameworks:
1.Strategic Diversification & Hedging: We help clients diversify markets, suppliers
and contract structures to maintain flexibility under uncertainty.
2.Scenario Design & Stress Testing: We model multiple trade policy pathways,
and assess their impact on revenue, margins and operational risk.
3.Supply Chain Resilience Architecture: We design procurement, sourcing and
production strategies to reduce exposure to tariff volatility and supply
interruptions.
4.Policy & Regulatory Alignment: We advise on compliance, risk mitigation, and
strategic positioning in environments marked by protectionist measures.
Key References
● IMF: World Economic Outlook, April 2025. IMF+1
● OECD: Global Economic Outlook, June 2025. OECD+1
● BNP Paribas / WEO: Global trade slowdown analysis 2025.
economic-research.bnpparibas.com+1
● Analysis on supply-chain shifts under trade war conditions. arXiv+1
● PwC consensus survey on trade-war impacts 2025. PwC
