The Economy in an Age of Uncertainty: How to Forecast When Models Diverge
A Fragmented Forecasting Landscape Economic forecasting is undergoing a structural shift. Models that once convergedaround similar projections now yield markedly different outcomes for growth, inflationand labour dynamics. Divergence is a defining feature of the current macroeconomicenvironment.International institutions acknowledge this challenge. The IMF notes that forecastingaccuracy has weakened due to non-linear shocks and structural breaks that […]