{"id":9067,"date":"2025-10-08T14:32:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T12:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tamver.eu\/un-futur-sense-tendencies-com-fer-previsions-quan-la-historia-deixa-de-ser-util\/"},"modified":"2026-07-02T12:18:55","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T10:18:55","slug":"un-futur-sense-tendencies-com-fer-previsions-quan-la-historia-deixa-de-ser-util","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tamver.eu\/ca\/un-futur-sense-tendencies-com-fer-previsions-quan-la-historia-deixa-de-ser-util\/","title":{"rendered":"Un futur sense tend\u00e8ncies: com fer previsions quan la hist\u00f2ria deixa de ser \u00fatil"},"content":{"rendered":"&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Quan els patrons hist\u00f2rics es trenquen<\/h2>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br\/>La previsi\u00f3 es basava antigament en la idea que el futur seria un reflex del passat. Tant els models econom\u00e8trics com els d&#8217;<br\/>IA s&#8217;han constru\u00eft sobre d\u00e8cades de dades hist\u00f2riques, per\u00f2 assumint estabilitat,<br\/>continu\u00eftat i cicles recurrents. <\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br\/>Tanmateix, els darrers anys han demostrat amb quina rapidesa poden col\u00b7lapsar aquestes suposicions. Els xocs<br\/>pand\u00e8mics, les disrupcions clim\u00e0tiques, els realineaments geopol\u00edtics i la r\u00e0pida transformaci\u00f3<br\/>tecnol\u00f2gica han fet que els patrons hist\u00f2rics deixin de ser fiables. <\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br\/>Estem entrant en el que es pot anomenar una era post-tend\u00e8ncia, una en la qual la hist\u00f2ria \u00e9s menys una guia<br\/>i m\u00e9s un advertiment.<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Per qu\u00e8 \u00e9s important la fi de les tend\u00e8ncies<\/h2>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">El repte<\/h2>&#13;\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;\n<li>Trencaments estructurals: els canvis de r\u00e8gim en tecnologia, pol\u00edtica i demografia fan que les relacions<br\/>passades siguin inestables.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Dades sint\u00e8tiques: els enfocaments de simulaci\u00f3 i de \u00abbess\u00f3 digital\u00bb poden complementar les dades absents o<br\/>obsoletes.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Xocs freq\u00fcents: els \u00abcisnes negres\u00bb s\u00f3n ara recurrents, convertint esdeveniments rars en disrupcions<br\/>habituals.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Retroalimentaci\u00f3 complexa: els sistemes econ\u00f2mics, tecnol\u00f2gics i ambientals estan ara<br\/>tan interconnectats que els petits canvis poden produir efectes en cascada de manera impredictible.<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>\r\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">L&#8217;oportunitat<\/h2>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;\n<li>Previsi\u00f3 adaptativa: els models que aprenen i s&#8217;ajusten en temps real poden gestionar millor la<br\/>incertesa.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Planificaci\u00f3 d&#8217;escenaris: les organitzacions poden passar de la predicci\u00f3 a la preparaci\u00f3, realitzant proves d&#8217;esfor\u00e7 per a m\u00faltiples futurs plausibles.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Dades sint\u00e8tiques: els enfocaments de simulaci\u00f3 i de \u00abbess\u00f3 digital\u00bb poden complementar les dades absents o<br\/>obsoletes.<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>\r\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Evid\u00e8ncia de la recerca<\/h2>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El Banc de Pagaments Internacionals (BPI) informa que els errors de previsi\u00f3 de la inflaci\u00f3 i del PIB<br\/>es van triplicar entre el 2020 i el 2023, ja que els models autoregressius est\u00e0ndard no van tenir en compte els<br\/>xocs no lineals.<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br\/>Mentrestant, el Foresight Toolkit de l&#8217;OCDE sost\u00e9 que, en entorns vol\u00e0tils, la preparaci\u00f3<br\/>i l&#8217;adaptabilitat superen la precisi\u00f3.<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Oportunitats i riscos<\/h2>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Oportunitats<\/h2>&#13;\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;\n<li>Prospectiva resilient: detecci\u00f3 d&#8217;alertes primerenques d&#8217;estr\u00e8s sist\u00e8mic.<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;\n<li>Dades integrades: combinaci\u00f3 de dades clim\u00e0tiques, de subministrament i financeres per trobar senyals ocults.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Aprenentatge continu: \u00fas de la IA adaptativa per tornar a ponderar les dades a mesura que evolucionen les condicions.<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>\r\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Riscos<\/h2>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;\n<li>Desviaci\u00f3 del model: els sistemes adaptatius poden sobreajustar-se al soroll.<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;\n<li>Opacitat: els models d&#8217;IA sovint sacrifiquen la transpar\u00e8ncia per la velocitat.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Biaix sint\u00e8tic: les dades simulades poden incloure suposicions falses.<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>\r\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Tal com adverteix l&#8217;Informe de Riscos 2025 del F\u00f2rum Econ\u00f2mic Mundial: \u00abEn una era de discontinu\u00eftat,<br\/>la prospectiva esdev\u00e9 una disciplina de resili\u00e8ncia\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Com fer previsions de manera responsable en un m\u00f3n post-tend\u00e8ncia<\/h2>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Per fer previsions de manera efica\u00e7 quan les tend\u00e8ncies fallen, les organitzacions haurien de:<\/p>&#13;\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;\n<li>Passar de la predicci\u00f3 a la preparaci\u00f3, centrant-se en la flexibilitat.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Integrar la incertesa: cada previsi\u00f3 hauria d&#8217;incloure intervals de confian\u00e7a i vies<br\/>alternatives.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Combinar la visi\u00f3 humana i l&#8217;aprenentatge autom\u00e0tic.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Mantenir la transpar\u00e8ncia, revelant les suposicions i limitacions del model.<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>\r\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Com TAMVER CONSULTING dona suport als clients<\/h2>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A TAMVER CONSULTING, guiem els clients a trav\u00e9s d&#8217;aquesta transici\u00f3 cap a la prospectiva adaptativa mitjan\u00e7ant:<\/p>&#13;\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;\n<li>Arquitectura d&#8217;escenaris: construcci\u00f3 de marcs per a m\u00faltiples futurs possibles.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Simulaci\u00f3 de crisis: realitzaci\u00f3 d&#8217;an\u00e0lisis estrat\u00e8giques de tipus \u00abqu\u00e8 passaria si\u00bb per a la preparaci\u00f3 davant disrupcions.<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>Governan\u00e7a de decisions: integraci\u00f3 de l&#8217;auditoria i la rendici\u00f3 de comptes en els sistemes de previsi\u00f3.<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>\r\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Conclusi\u00f3<\/h2>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quan la hist\u00f2ria deixa de ser \u00fatil, la prospectiva ha d&#8217;evolucionar.<br\/>El futur afavorir\u00e0 aquells que puguin pensar m\u00e9s enll\u00e0 dels patrons, integrar l&#8217;aprenentatge continu<br\/>i planificar per a l&#8217;inesperat.<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00a0<\/p>&#13;\n&#13;\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">Refer\u00e8ncies<\/h2>&#13;\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">&#13;\n<li>Banc de Pagaments Internacionals \u2013 Quarterly Review, juny de 2024<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>OCDE \u2013 Strategic Foresight Toolkit per a pol\u00edtiques p\u00fabliques resilients<\/li>&#13;\n\r\n\r\n&#13;\n<li>F\u00f2rum Econ\u00f2mic Mundial \u2013 Global Risks Report 2025<\/li>&#13;\n<\/ul>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#13; Quan els patrons hist\u00f2rics es trenquen &#13; &#13; La previsi\u00f3 es basava antigament en la idea que el futur seria un reflex del passat. Tant els models econom\u00e8trics com els d&#8217;IA s&#8217;han constru\u00eft sobre d\u00e8cades de dades hist\u00f2riques, per\u00f2 assumint estabilitat,continu\u00eftat i cicles recurrents. &#13; &#13; Tanmateix, els darrers anys han demostrat amb quina [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":9066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business-forecasting"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Previsi\u00f3 sense dades hist\u00f2riques: quan les tend\u00e8ncies passades fallen - Tamver<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analitzeu com fer previsions sense dades hist\u00f2riques. 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